|
ANALYSIS ARCHIVE
Choice commentary from the list participants TURN 7:  Ray Tate: Initial thoughts - COFT on B13a (33) giving us a lead of 64 looks strong enough to outweigh a rack leave of EEU, & worth the risk of QUACK or QUICK from B10d (80) as a reply or a similar high response if the A, I, K or U is replaced by the blank. Bonuses responses along row 14, from L8d, down the N-file, I13a should give counterplay with a reasonable pick-up & good luck to Maven if it has a bonus off the Z, or something like BEDROOM from B6. Can't see much else apart from OFT from C13 (27) leaving us the C-hook & perhaps better balanced leave but not happy with C,L,S & T OFT hooks. 16 votes COFT B13a (33 points) unless persuaded otherwise during the week, Peter Finley: (in reply to Ray) That was my immediate reaction too. Apart from OFT, which I discount for the same reasons as Raymond, the only other plays that offer themselves immediately are CUTE (but that opens dangerous A and S hooks on the triple line) and COTE. The latter does keep EFU rather than EEU, but is it worth a sacrifice of 9 points? Maybe. Peter Finley: (in reply to himself) I had momentarily forgotten the E situation in this game when I wrote this. Having remembered it, I concede that EEU would be a terrible leave. I think we must eschew COFT and choose from COTE, FOE or FETE. (My lazy Sunday brain hadn't spotted the latter two first time round.) I'm not keen on Mike's EFT as it gives away hooking opportunities as well as leaving the vowel heavy CEOU. At the moment I favour FOE for its leave of CUTE (better in my opinion than FEU or COU). However, after the ROSALIA situation, I wouldn't be surprised if the sim favoured COFT. Still thinking, still listening. Andrew Fisher: Several reasonable possibilities here. My first thought was UFO/OHM, but the E-heavy leave is not good in this situation. Better scores are available hooking onto JO, including COTE, CUTE, FOE, COFT and EFT. My preference at the moment is for FETE/IT/JOE - scores 26 (a bit more than some alternatives), we have no need to retain E's and the leave is acceptable, and it is OK defensively. That's my vote (19) Keiichiro Hirai: Now I vote (17votes) for FOE/IO/JOE(24) keeping CUTE. Score and leave is good. It's likely we'll pick up E, R, A and maybe Q. Keeping U is good. We may able to play (around Column N, L, O and E) in next turn: ELECTRUM ENACTURE ENURETIC ERUCTATE EUCRITES EXECUTOR EXECUTRY LECTURED LECTURER RELUCENT RELUCTED RETICULE SECATEUR SECUREST DEUTERIC TINCTURE TOREUTIC TRUNCATE TUTRICES CREUT(Z)ER ENCURTA(IN) UNCERTA(IN) QUERCET(IN) My biggest concern is that PC will play a bingo around Column N, O, L or S------/PIGS, which will kill our bingo potentials in next turn. Other considerations: COFT/IF/JOT(33) keeping EEU OFT/IF/JOT(27) keeping CEEU FUZE(16) keeping COTE Nick Deller: I'm tempted by, and don't think I've seen mention of, FUZEE O6d for 17. COT is a respectable leave with the bag as it is, and it leaves us 48 ahead with few glaring hotspots and only four viable bonus positions remaining; a seven ending -O, -OB or -OM in row 6, an eight ending with F in row 2, a seven with an S on square I13, or an eight hanging off the T- of TREZ. In fairness, it could still be possible to slot an eight on the E of TREZ, but it becomes much more difficult. The first two are pretty improbable, and if any of these happen, they're likely to offer good counterplay opportunities. Is it worth sacrificing a full seven points against CETE just to close off around the E or Z of TREZ? It might be - certainly column N looks highly dangerous at present. There's still a strong possibility of playing something in the CETE position next turn (COTE is very likely, CETE again is not out of the question). If that position gets taken, we might well be able to continue demolishing the board's bonus potential in an act of petty, small-minded revenge. :-) No vote yet. There's debatin' to be done. Darryl Francis: Picking up on Nick's point about doing some closing down, how about TUTEE at L8d for a measly 10 points? It shuts out the possibility of an 8-letter bonus beginning with the T of TREZ. It pretty much kills off the -S hook position at I13 (unless, of course, the opponent has a bonus with two S's in just the right places). It offloads two E's, which everyone is confidently expecting to get bucketloads of very soon. And leaves us with CFO, which we can probably use to good effect on our next turn. Unfortunately, TUTEE still leaves the possibility of 8-letter bonuses through the E and Z of TREZ. Plus the remaining unlikely places - eg the O-HM hook and the 8-letter word ending in F. Discuss, please! Nick Deller: (in reply to Darryl) To my mind, the E of TREZ is the really hot bonus danger - the E can be preceded by most consonants at the start of an eight letter word; alternatively any eight starting with E is playable. For no rational reason, I look at the bag and think that a vowel floater is more likely to be useful to Maven than a consonant (incidentally, I forgot to mention eights around the G of PIG when I assessed the bonus lanes after FUZEE), and that an S is not at its most useful when it has to go in the first half of a word. I could be wrong. Also, I don't know if anybody's pointed out the possibility of QUICK or QUACK for some horrifying score as a potential response to CETE. I feel somebody should at least mention it! Peter Finley: Andrew and Philip have suggested FETE and CETE respectively. While I accept that there are lots of E's to come (nine to be precise) there are 37 other non-Es to come. Is it not a little profligate to play both of our Es out? Someone who understands these things might like to calculate the E-picking probabilities, including picking none. I'm still favouring FOE at the moment, but I still suspect the sim will like COFT despite the EEU leave. Paul Allan: COFT b13a looks best to me, 18 votes please. I think people are overly worried about drawing too many E's. Pete asked about the chances of drawing different numbers of E's..... 0 0.40 1 0.43 2 0.15 3 0.02 4 0.00 (rounded down) Chances of drawing different numbers of consonants (including blank)... 0 0.03 1 0.18 2 0.38 3 0.32 4 0.09 These would suggest that there isn't too much to worry about on either front. I think that the extra score from COFT is decisive. The superior leave of CUTE after FOE just isn't worth the sacrifice in my opinion. Blocking seems inappropriate here as we're only 31 ahead, I prefer FUZEE to TUTEE but they both look BAD. QUACK/QUICK possibility is nothing much to worry about, it's about 400-1 discounting the blank. Peter Finley: Andrew and Philip have suggested FETE and CETE respectively. While I accept that there are lots of E's to come (nine to be precise) there are 37 other non-Es to come. Is it not a little profligate to play both of our Es out? Someone who understands these things might like to calculate the E-picking probabilities, including picking none. I'm still favouring FOE at the moment, but I still suspect the sim will like COFT despite the EEU leave. Phil Appleby: There are several things we should be thinking about in making the decision as to what to play: - Move score - Overall score - Rack leave - Board opportunities - Defensive attributes Considering each of these in turn... Move score: COFT at b13a for 33 is best by some distance, with EFT and OFT at c13a scoring 27, FETE 26, moves such as CUTE, CETE and COTE 24, FOE 24, UFO at e6a 22, FUZEE or FUZE at o6d for 17 and 16 respectively, and TUTEE at l8d 10. Overall score: We're currently 31 ahead. COFT will give us a 64-point lead, so after a Maven bonus the score will be pretty much even. After most plays on row 13, our lead will be in the mid-50s, so after a bonus by Maven we'll regain the lead next move. After a move such as TUTEE, or even FUZEE, a bonus would leave us some 20-30 points behind. Rack leave: Given the remaining tiles, EEU after COFT looks pretty horrid to me. Paul's calculations suggest that the most likely pickup is two vowels and two consonants. So with an average pickup we could find ouselves facing something like EEEGIUR next turn, which doesn't look very promising. FOE leaves the best vowel/consonant balance (CETU). With a vowel-heavy bag, I'd be reluctant to leave a 3V1C leave, as would be the case with EFT or OFT. Under normal circumstances we would want to keep back an E, but with lots of E's still in the bag, this is less of a concern than usual. Are there any tiles that we'd like to keep, for whatever reason? Possibly the O for OHM, or the U in case we pick up the Q. Nothing else leaps out at me. Board opportunities: The only real non-bonus hot-spot is row 13. If we don't play there, it's very likely that Maven will. Holding back UFO for e6a is possible, but it looks to me like the kind of play that will give away as much as it scores, with the possibility of parallel plays on row 5. Defensive attributes: I agree with Nick that the most dangerous floater is the E at n8, and the Z might be useful for -IZE verbs (not to mention the possible danger of a mammoth play beginning with Z). Have Maven's plays suggested any particular tiles? Not really, although it's interesting to note that it hasn't played an S or blank in the game - at this stage of the game, with fewer than half the tiles in the bag, isn't it likely that it has one or other on its rack? PIG has the look of a rack-balancing play. So if we assumed that Maven does have an S or blank, does this influence our choice? But if we play on the right side of the board, Maven is likely to score 25-30 points on row 13, in the very place that we have just neglected to use. Whereas if Maven doesn't have a bonus, there are few places to score elsewhere on the board. As far as row 13 plays are concerned, EFT and OFT give far too much away with their multitudinous front hooks. Decision time: Taking all of these things into consideration... To me the most important factor is the overall score. We're not far enough ahead, and there are still too many bonus opportunties, for us to play blocking moves regardless of score. So that means playing a move on row 13. I feel that the EEU leave is too weak after COFT. EFT and OFT give far too much away, so that leaves FOE, COTE/CUTE/CETE, or FETE. I'm going to plump for COTE. Although there aren't many places for the F on this board, it's a more versatile tile for general use than C; we keep back the U in case of a Q pick-up, and we keep the score ticking over. 18 votes for COTE at b13a.
|
Copyright © 1999-2000 by Mind Sports Organisation Worldwide Ltd.
E-mail: info@msoworld.com