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ANALYSIS ARCHIVE
Choice commentary from the list participants TURN 5:  Keiichiro Hirai: Possible plays would be:
An interesting move is SAIL/BUHLS(15pt) keeping AOS, hoping to pick up Z, X, RD and/or blank(s). Keeping one S seems nice. Keeping AS may lead to WHINYARDS (36pt). Helen Gipson: In situations like this I tend to decide what is the best rack I can leave and then try to leave it, which I would current rate as SAIL. We can play OAS as ADIOS at I5a for a stunning 12 points. With only 4 As and 4 Is left we would be unlucky to duplicate on pickup. Peter Finley: The crux here seems to be whether it is worth playing both S's away together in ASSAIL, ASSOIL or OSSIA to avoid keeping a duplicate tile in the leave for something like IOS. As OSSIA seems to be the highest scoring move and it only scores three points more than IOS, I'm inclined to risk the ALAS leave in order to keep an S. That's 17 votes for IOS at D12a unless one of the people who never get a tournament rating of 153 can come up with a good reason for playing something else. Allan Simmons: Not that I've thought it through much but just to through another one into the pot, what about VIOLAS C9d (18) to keep just AS? A minor consideration is that the opponent could well play through the L to yield a tws. I must admit IOS looks more sensible and is healthier scorewise and I don't mind two A's given that a third is unlikely. Andrew Davis: Whilst VIOLAS does turn over an extra tile, is it worth risking a possible response of QI or XI for 50+? Admittedly, ALSO also gives away an X-spot, but if that did happen, we'd be able to use the AX-E hook with one of the 4 Es that we are going to pick up :). I calculate that ALSO/BUHLS and VIOLAS both score 18 Sticking with ALSO unless someone comes up with something noticeably better Jackie McLeod: A horrible rack, the sort I find particularly difficult. Two S's, but no bonus. All one point tiles including 2x2 duplicates. No immediate high score opportunities. Still no E. Brain grinds into gear, thus: Definitely play off the duplicates, A+S. This leaves AILOS, still too many vowels in view of imminent EEE SAIL looks good to keep, but AOS is only playable by Helen's ADIOS, a quirky little move that immediately tells our (if human) opponent that we have an S. If using that spot, how about OIDIA h5a (12 points), leaving LASS? Definitely getting at least one E next time, the leave looks reasonable for a bonus I quite like VIOLA, would prefer to get rid of one S, but VIOLAS, for only 2 points more, again makes it too obvious that we hold a second S. I like Andy D's ALSO/BUHLS for 18. Which leaves us to profit from ISA. Phil Appleby: Playing against the computer, signalling that we have an S is irrelevant, so no worries about playing one off. So far 15 vowels (39%) and 23 consonants (61%) have been played. So the chance of picking a surfeit of vowels (particularly E's!) is slightly higher than it would be at the beginning of the game, when the respective percentages are 43% and 57%. My preference at this stage would be to keep a balance of consonants (including one of the S's) and vowels - either one of each or two of each. I could see Helen's suggestion of ADIOS simulating well, but it blocks off one of the S spots and I could imagine the game grinding to a halt, or at the very least becoming horribly restrictive, if Maven played something ending -OS at e12-f12. IOS keeps the 2C2V balance and scores quite well. VIOLAS scores slightly less but gets rid of the duplicate A's. Very difficult, but I think I'll go for IOS. This is probably influenced (totally irrationally given that we have perfect word knowledge in this game) by the fact that a few years ago I decided to start studying bonus words in strict alphagrammatical order, so my knowledge of bonuses containing two A's is (or at least was) pretty good. And it also prevents the (admittedly very small) possibility of XI or QI at b10d for a barrel-load of points. Yep, IOS at d12a it is (unless someone can persuade me otherwise). Philip Nelkon: ALSO m2d 18 points please. Can't accept duplicate A's in this situation, to me they are worth more than minus 5, versus IOS - 23 points. David Webb: The leave-adjusted values of five candidate moves are as follows:
I vote for IOS (20 votes) Roy Miller: OASIS down from M2 and sod the consequences of dropping both esses. At least the leave LA leave is better than any other I've seen, apart from changing and scoring zilch.
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