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ANALYSIS ARCHIVE

Choice commentary from the list participants

TURN 4:

Stewart Holden:
All I can say is OU BALLS!

Well, guess it's not too bad, but if we'd played JOLLS it would have almost certainly been better.

Suggestions -- BUHL? Not too good for score but best for leave. BOA? Scores, but same bad leave and very open. Can't think of anything else except AULOS / JO / TOYOS, but that uses the S.

Nick Deller:
A few possibilities that immediately come to mind:

Something high-scoring around the loose W - BOWLS for 26 looks like the best we'll get and isn't all that high scoring.

Something parallel in row 12 - ABOS for 29 would keep ULL, AULOS for 27 would keep BL.

Something parallel in row 6. I can only see LOB or OBA as being remotely worthwhile, and I don't really like either.

Something parallel in column L - BOA for 25 or BOAS for 29 at L2d, perhaps. The latter certainly keeps it tight, and ULL or SULL is no worse a retention this time than it would have been last.

A high-risk setup play. HULL K4a only scores 14, and offers -O and -S hooks - which is nice given that the leave includes O and S. If the spot isn't demolished or taken then we have at least a 30 point play next time with BOAS - if it *is* demolished or taken we still have BOAS to do something else with, for example the ABOS play in row 12. However, I think it scores too few and, with SSOOOOO?? unseen, is far too likely to backfire.

I lean towards AULOS/JO/TOYOS out of that lot, but would welcome further options.

Keiichiro Hirai:
Without reading other players' posts(ideas), I thought of BOWLS(26pt), BLAHS(26), SOUL/OW/UH/LI(18). BALS/BI/AN/PITMANS(27), LOB/OHM/BAA(20), LOS/JO/TOYOS(23).

Now I'll vote for SOUL/OW/UH/LI(18pt), keeping ABL. Hoping bingo with ABL+E??? next turn, and restricting use of W, H, I of WHINY. I like keeping one 'A' now.

Phil Nelkon:
INULA i7d - 16 points is definitely worth considering ? It's the sort of move Mr.Simmons likes, doesn't give much away, develops the rack, keeps scoring potential also gives us an -S hook (admittedly front hooks are not as good as rear hooks) which are sadly lacking at the moment. I like BUHL as well.

The bag is looking more bonus conducive than average, of the 15 letters worth 4 or more, 8 have already gone.

Hey, I'm getting into this way of playing, who cares about turnover?

Peter Finley:
From the defensive point of view, the WH corner is a big threat. We can't score a great deal there without using the S in BOWLS or BAWLS and they both leave lots of scoring potential for our opponent.

BUHL bungs this corner up nicely, and leaves a decent ALSO, but doesn't score much.

HULL holds promise of possible success but is much too cavalier for my liking.

AULOS scores nicely but leaves the dangerous WH corner for our opponent. It also opens a dangerous triple letter/double word possibility from B10d.

For me it boils down to AULOS versus BUHL. Are the extra 9 points for AULOS worth the goodies we leave for our opponent?

At this stage I don't think they are and I'm inclined to go for BUHL at I4a. I'll hold for a little while though as I'd like to see more opinions.

Lewis Mackay:
This is turning out to be an interesting consensus game - not a single E played after three turns apiece! Well, no-one said it was going to be easy...

After surveying everyone else's thoughts concerning the fourth move, I think I will go along with BUHL (18 pts) in the obvious place. As previously said, it leaves a useful opportunity for our S (which, at the moment, isn't that useful) and it leaves hooks for our remaining vowels, both above and below the B. The nice leave of ALOS (with the likelihood of us picking up an E next turn - all twelve are left) more than compensates for the comparitively low score - bonusing next turn is definitely possible. None of the other moves mentioned appeal to me, because of their inferior rack leaves (the HULL move is definitely far too risky).

David Webb:
The four moves with highest score after adjusting for leave, duplicates, vowel/consonant balance and 2-tile synergy are:

BUHL 'worth' 26 points
BOWLS 'worth' 25.5 points
LOB 'worth' 25.5 points
AULOS 'worth' 25 points

I apply 2-tile synergy adjustments to greater than 2-tile leaves by choosing the worst of the 2-tile synergies present. Hence BUHL's leave of ALOS was punished by 1.5 points for the LO combination. This may not be correct. An average of the 2-tile synergies or some other method might be more appropriate. I suspect therefore that BUHL may be a better move than indicated above by a point or two.

I don't think there are any board evaluation adjustments of any significance.

I vote for BUHL (20 points)

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