E'SY PLAY?
In the current UK Scrabble vs. Machine feature we have a peculiar state of play as far as tile distribution is concerned. 38 tiles seen, and still no E. What are the odds of that happening?
The chance of all the first 38 tiles drawn from a standard set being non-Es is 1 in 486. If we take blanks into the equation, that is, none of the first 38 is a blank or an E, the chance is about 1 in 1520.
To look at the other side of the equation. Duplicate or triplicate E's are a threat here, or are they? What are the chances of drawing 3 E's if UK Scrabble plays words of a certain length?
- 3 letter word = 1 in 172
- 4 letter word = 1 in 51
- 5 letter word = 1 in 24
It seems that 1 in 24 is a pretty high probability; more likely than rolling a double 6 in backgammon. I would tend to want to avoid the EEE situation and hence lean towards a 4 letter word. Playing a 3 puts the odds definitely in UKS' favour.
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US RATINGS DECREASE
Below are some stats on the NSA ratings, taken from March of each of the past three years. Only "active" players (those with tourney activity during the prior 12 months) were analyzed. Statistics and analysis kindly produced by Diane Firstman.
|
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
| AVERAGE |
1225.9 |
1175.3 |
1158.9 |
| ST. DEV. |
361.7 |
373.3 |
377.1 |
| MEDIAN |
1212 |
1155 |
1143 |
| COUNT |
2240 |
2237 |
2441 |
| AVG. TOP 10 |
2037.1 |
2006.1 |
2016.0 |
| AVG. TOP 25 |
1993.4 |
1968.8 |
1976.7 |
| AVG. TOP 50 |
1949.4 |
1935.5 |
1937.6 |
| AVG. TOP 100 |
1903.6 |
1886.7 |
1890.8 |
The statistics would seem to show that a "collapsing" of ratings towards the "middle" is indeed occuring (the standard deviation increasing quite a bit in 2000, and a bit more in 2001).
It seems a bit odd that the huge decrease in average rating (50 points) from 1999 to 2000 was not due to an influx of new players who would "steal" points from established players, as the "count" was basically the same in both years. The 12 month period ending 3/1/01 saw the "count" go up by over 200 (the post-US NSC effect?), but the average "only" decreased by 16.
Note: There was no analysis of exactly how many unique individuals were active in each of the 3 years, or any subset thereof. Its conceivable that, for example, 200 people dropped out in the 12 months ending 3/1/00 and 200 new members came in too.
Overall, the 12 months ending 3/1/00 were bad for ratings deflation, and this pattern subsided a bit during the 12 months ending 3/1/01. This is shown in the average ratings of the top 10, 25, 50 and 100 for each year. 2000 saw decreases in each category, while 2001 saw a bit of a comeback.
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NOTABLE PERFORMANCES
This is a new weekly spot to recognise any outstanding plays or players at any competitive level in the preceding week. Over the past weekend, 3-4th March, there were three excellent performances:
USA:
It was a stunning win for Pat Yarnell in Newport beach, CA when she took first in a division of eight that included Ira Cohen and Chris Cree. Her score was an impressive 5/7 +194. Pat is the first woman to take the crown at the monthly 1st Sunday tournament at Newport Beach.
Australia:
In the reverberating high-ceilinged hall of Balmain Town Hall, NSW on Sunday 4th March, internet player Steve Bird made an impressive debut in the 2001 BUGS tournament. As a result of his Internet Scrabble experience, Steve was placed in the Intermediate division, where he promptly won seven out of the eight games, and came first in his division. Expect to hear more of this name in the near future! Steve was in esteemed company as Australian Scrabble giants Bob Jackman, John Holgate, Paul Cleary and Rod Talbot all attended the event. Bob Jackman ran out winner of the Masters division with 6/7 +602.
UK:
Mark Hollinsworth came into the Newcastle DSS tournament on Sunday 4th March with a 120 rating. He was only in the top division because his coach, Joyce Cansfield, had pointed out to the organisers that he was far better than his rating suggested. He was actually lying third in the Aireborough club league, presumably behind Joyce and Helen Grayson. He proceeded to finish second in the tournament with 4/5 +185, including victories over Peter Finley and Martin Thompson. His coach, Joyce, inflicted his only defeat on her way to a division A victory with a 100% record +252.
*****
GAUTENG SCHOOLS TOURNAMENT
The 2nd Gauteng School Scrabble Tournament was held March 4th 2001. There were 112 players from 18 schools - last year it was 38 players and 8 schools, so the event has trebled in size! The tournament was held jointly by SANSPA Gauteng and the South African Council for English Education (SACEE) and was held at Parktown High School for Girls, in Parkview, Johannesburg.
Last year's champion, Forest High's Vania Mahotas, was beaten in her final game by the eventual champion, Riverside High's Mone Phadi. Some undoubtable new stars were found - especially in the Primary Schools.
These 14 players from 4 schools competed in the Primary School Section.
Picture with kind permission from the SANSPA web site.
Winners
| Level |
Player |
School |
Score |
Spread |
| Primary |
Gideon Wilk |
King David Victory Park Primary |
2/2 |
|
| Junior High |
Tom Hammond |
Parktown Boys' High |
3/3 |
+264 |
| Senior High |
Mone Phadi |
Riverside High |
3/3 |
+224 |
High Game/Word
|
High Game |
High Word |
| Level |
Player |
Score |
Player |
Score/Word |
| Primary |
Gideon Wilk |
345 |
Siyabonga Sibelo |
50 XU/EX |
| Junior High |
Jason Mazaham |
403 |
Mandlovu Gwebu |
80 GARAGES |
| Senior High |
Vania Mahotas |
343 |
Nicole Te Broke |
80 CONVERGE |
*****
NIAGRA FALLS ARE BURNING DOWN?
Did you know that when fluorescent ballasts end their life, they make a building smell like its burning down? Day one of the Buffalo-Niagra Falls Tournament, ON on Saturday 3rd March experienced this phenomenon in the playing room causing initial panic and then an amazing display of teamwork. Everyone pitched in to move tables in the affected area out into the lobby so games could continue. Later, volunteers worked with hotel management to return the tables to the playing area once the electrical problem had been solved.
Burning maple syrup in a hotel restaurant kitchen also fills areas with the aroma of a building possibly on fire. This happened on Day two. In a panic, and in the absence of management, the hotel owner shut off all the circuit breakers, so the restrooms were dark and the playing room had only natural daylight. Within 15 minutes management was on site and all was put back in order.
Through all the smells Lloyd Mills went on to win Division A with 9/12 +984. I guess he had a cold.
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