I WAS SO UNLUCKY...
"Come, civil night,
Thou sober-suited matron all in black,
And learn me how to lose a winning match."
So said Juliet as she falls in love with Romeo. Many think this a reference to how strong her love for him was but in reality she was referring to backgammon and losing a winning match in particular!
In my experience no-one needs to learn how to lose a winning match, it's already in their bloodstream; what they need is to unlearn it. How many times have you been hit by that lucky roll and been put onto the bar? Several, I'm sure; but wait, is it lucky or is there something you don't know? Are you missing out on something that your opponent knows but you don't? In all probability you are missing something, its called knowledge. In backgammon it's not a mixture of skill and luck, it's skill and knowledge. Having that knowledge can give you the edge! Often, as I trawl through the playing rooms at tournaments I see players squander winning matches from sheer ignorance - but, when they come up to me later to record the result of the match they bemoan how unlucky the were to have lost it after only one unlucky roll!
Well, here's how to avoid those unlucky rolls. In order to gain most benefit from the following, set your browser window to stop at the dividing line before proceeding further. Do as asked and then continue. No cheating!
Take for example at the start of the match, (Figure 1).
Figure 1
You are black and it's your first move. White has already played 4-1, moving 13/9 24/23. Now, how many throws out of the 36 combinations will make your 5-point on this roll? Work them out and write down each one and then continue...
The answer is five rolls will make your 5-point. They are 3-1, 1-3, 3-3, 1-1, 4-4. Easy eh? Now, without working out each of the individual throws, how else could you arrive at five? There is a very quick and easy shortcut. Think about it and then move on.
Did you find the shortcut? It is easy; just multiply the number of points you occupy within the range of one die (6 points) from your target point (in this case the 5-point), by itself. IE: (8-point) 1 + (6-point) 1 = 2. 2 x 2 = 4. You therefore have four basic throws that will cover the 5-point. These four basic rolls contain doubles that cover the target point, so, if you only had a single man on any of the available points, deduct 1 roll for each single man. You then add on any rolls that add up to the number required but do not hit the target point directly. In this case the 5-point is 8 pips away from the 13-point therefore 4-4 is added to the basics. So, now can you work out, quickly, how many rolls will make your 4-point? Before you read on, work it out and then continue.
The answer is five. Why? Because this time the extra throw that covers the 4-point is 1-1. Remember, after you've worked out your basic hitting numbers, deduct the singles, then count all throws that add up to the required point but do not hit the target point directly. In this case, 1-1 adds up to 2 and it is your extra throw.
Staying with Figure 1. Calculate the number of rolls that make white's 5-point, and then calculate how many will make his 4-point, and finally, his bar-point. When you've worked them out, continue.
So, did you get them all right? Nine rolls will make white's 5-point (9-, 8- & 6-points) = 3, 3 x 3 = 9. Deduct from this 1 for the single man on the 9-point and then add 1 for 4-4 from the 13-point. In the case of the 4-point, the answer is also nine. The basic 9 (3 x 3) less 1 for the single man on the 9-point because there isn't a double that can cover the target point from this position, plus 1 for 1-1 played from the 6-point. The most rolls made the bar-point; ten in total: the basic 9 (3 x 3) less 1 for the single man on the 9-point, plus 3-3 and 2-2
Now, look at figure 2. How many rolls will cover the 5-point?
Figure 2
The answer is ten. Three (6-, 7- & 8-points) x 3 = 9 plus 4-4 = 10. Did you get it right? Don't forget, always multiply the number of men available by itself, deduct all single men, and add the extras.
Look at Figure 3. Imagine white opened with 6-1 making the bar-point, your reply was 4-4 and you made white's 5-point, and your own 9-point. White then responded with a 3-1 and attempts to make your 5-point or escape on his next throw. How many rolls will point on him and place him on the bar?
Figure 3
Did you get it right? It's the same problem as figure 2, except this time the extra isn't 4-4 (because it's already one of the basics) but 2-2. Now, if you're getting the hang of it, that should have been self evident. Add, multiply, deduct, add.
Now consider the position in Figure 4. You, black began with 2-1 (13/10), White replied 6-1 and made his bar-point, you rolled 4-4 and made the 20- and 9-points then white rolled 3-1, and, being unable to make his own 5-point decided to slot yours instead. How many rolls does black have now to point on him?
Figure 4
If you've come up with 17 you've done it. If you haven't, look again. Did you spot the crafty 5-5 played 20/15 15/10 10/5 10/5? If not then you haven't fully grasped the concept of the shortcut. Keep trying.
This wasn't a lucky roll, 47% of rolls would have covered that blot. It was knowledge. That knowledge, and that one extra builder on the 10-point, gave you an increase of 70% over the position in Fig: 3. A nice edge!
Now, how many times have you been bearing into your inner table against opposition - either on the bar or holding a point, and thrown that unlucky number and been forced to leave a blot? Quite a few? Well, perhaps we can do something about that as well! Look at Figure 5. Black to play 6-1.
Figure 5: Black to play 6-1
Double match point
Well, this is a lucky roll, you've rolled a much needed six, so off you go; play it.
Hands up all those that played the runner 22/16, 16/15. This was a mistake as it left three rolls that would expose you to a double-hit. The bad rolls were, 6-6, 5-5, 4-4 (8.3%), each leaving White 20 (55.5%) return shots. Had you known about the Double-Six rule you'd have played 22/16, 6/5 leaving only 5-5 (2.8%) as the joker. The 6-6 rule is that generally if double six can be played safe you are unlikely to come unstuck with any throws at all, or leave the absolute minimum returns if not 100% safe. As a guide, if you can move 6-6 you can move anything, most of the time! So, it's always a good idea to see just how well 6-6 would play. If you want to be even more sure, include 6-5 in your predictions!
Of course, lucky throws can sometimes be un-lucky as well. Take for example the times you've been ahead in a no-contact race as in Figure 6 and then your opponent has thrown a couple of great doubles and won the point and often the match.
Figure 6: Black on roll
It's happened to you has it? Well why? Didn't it occur to you to double them out? You let them do it. In a no-contact race when there really isn't a gammon chance for you and you're well ahead in the race, double straight away. Don't you end up calling your opponent 'lucky' just because you failed to use basic backgammon knowledge and then come to me and moan about it!
Placing your men into advantageous positions is knowledge, not luck. Of course, these examples are contrived, but, throughout the game, always look for that edge over your opponent. Let him think you're a lucky player. The longer he bemoans your luck the more games he'll lose thinking it.
U2 have got the Edge! So can you. Get it?
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