White to play 33

Black was playing for a gammon when White rolled the dice to re-enter and hit We can imagine Black's comments at White's good fortune! This really is pure luck and it will only happen once in every thirty six games. Play this position 36 times and Black wins a gammon almost thirty-five times out thirty-six.

There is nothing that can be done to overcome this small element of luck, but in other situations Black can steer the game in the direction he wants.

Many beginners run and play safe and infuriatingly win the game. When this happens it is often the fault of the more experienced player playing the wrong type of game. When playing a 'run and play safe' opponent the best way to put luck on your side is to select opening positions where repeated hits can be expected by slotting the 5 and/or bar points. Repeated hits by either player will result in complex situations that the inexperienced player may have difficulty in handling. It will also be a long positional struggle and the longer the game the greater the probability that the inexperienced opponent will make mistakes.

Putting Luck On Your Side

Here is a situation where Black can make his own luck. When a player has a home board far stronger than the opponent's home board he should be hitting the opponent's blots ruthlessly. In this situation if Black hits one blot he will get lucky 25 per cent of the time when the opponent fails to re-enter.

Hit the two blots on the 3 and 15 points and Black will get really lucky 25 percent of the time when White fails to enter any chequer. Moderately lucky when White enters only one chequer with a further 50 percent of his rolls. A further 16.6 percent of White's rolls will enter both chequers but fail to make an anchor, giving Black the opportunity to continue the attack. Only three rolls actually enable White to anchor; a mere 8.4 percent.

Putting two chequers on the bar in this situation is a virtual death sentence for White when Black has such a superior home board. This strong board versus a weak board situation is one of the best opportunities for a player to 'make his own luck' and should be exploited ruthlessly.

Risky Luck

Black still to play a 5

Black has just re-entered from the bar with a four and must play the five. With two blots exposed in his home board Black must decide whether to cover on his 5 point or hit on the 16 point

It takes courage to hit, if it goes wrong he will lose a lot of gammons. If he does not hit it looks almost certain that he will lose the game. The actual results for hitting and not hitting as predicted by the computer program Jellyfish 2.1 are as follows:

If Black hits with 21/16:

	% Wins	Gmns	Bgmns
White	53.8%	39.7%	4.1%
Black	36.2%	18.0%	0.5%

Black does not hit with 10/5:

	% Wins	Gmns	Bgmns
White	82.8%	22.1%	1.0%
Black	17.2%	3.3%	0.0%

By hitting Black not only doubles his wins, but also, when he is not hit, forces White to resign by redoubling. The risky hit is the only way Black can realistically have any significant hope winning this game.

This extract appears with acknowledgements to publishers Pan Books. "Backgammon - Winning Strategies" is available from all good bookshops.

Robin Clay
Introduction	Meet The Author
Biography	Teach Yourself Backgammon
Backgammon In A Week	Backgammon - Winning Strategies
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