Aids
(3)
Michael Crane
The inability to enter off the bar can
often lead to losing the game and therefore it is advisable to know what rolls will enter and what
wont. The next table shows this odds of re-entering with one man against n points
closed.
| Entering One Man Off The Bar |
| Closed points |
No. of Entering rolls |
| 1 |
35 |
| 2 |
32 |
| 3 |
27 |
| 4 |
20 |
| 5 |
11 |
Quite obviously the more points closed the harder it is to re-enter
. . . but not as hard as most beginners think! For example, often new players reckon that if 3
points are closed (50%) then only 18 rolls (50%) will re-enter; this is incorrect.
Take a look at the table showing 3 closed points - a total of 27 rolls re-enter, that's 75%,
nowhere near the expected 50%. In fact with as many as 4 closed points you still re-enter with 20
rolls (55.55%). But, with two men on the bar these odds change dramatically. Look at the
next table.
| Entering Two Men Off The Bar |
|
No. of Entering rolls |
| Closed points |
2 men |
1 man |
No men |
| 1 |
25 |
35 |
1 |
| 2 |
16 |
32 |
4 |
| 3 |
9 |
27 |
9 |
| 4 |
4 |
20 |
16 |
| 5 |
1 |
11 |
25 |
Huge differences now; at the very best you have 25 re-entry rolls (69.44%) for both men with just one point closed, expand this to two points closed and it
drops dramatically to just 16 re-entry rolls that's as little as 44.44%; and, if you are facing
a home board with just a measly three points closed with two on the bar then all you have to
re-enter with is 9 rolls (25%), which, if you reverse the math means you don't enter 75% of the
time!
So, remember this table because it is well worth knowing just how bad/good it is to have two men on
the bar with just a couple of points made.
I don't suggest you commit these entire tables to memory
but if you can just remember half your game will improve. This is basic information that is
essential to understanding the probabilities of dice rolls and their repercussions. In Part 2 I
will explain why players lose games due to (what they think is) bad luck.
