Round Seven/ The Final
Webmaster Chris Dickson with more statistical revelations:
An interesting turn of events in our prediction contest concerning the
final of the FIDE World Championship; people weren't expecting Vishy
Anand to roll over Alexei Shirov like a juggernaut.
We had 22 entries for the final prediction contest, excluding
duplicates. 14 of them chose Anand to win, 8 Shirov. (Seven of the
predicted Shirov wins were by 3˝-2˝, the eighth by 3˝-1˝.) We
eliminate the eight Shirov voters from contention.
Next, we try to identify a winner from people who correctly predicted
the score. This is trickier than it sounds because nobody was brave
enough to make the correct prediction that the match would be a 3˝-˝
four-day hammering - in fact, all 14 contenders thought the game
would reach at least the sixth day! Ten of you thought the result would
be 3˝-2˝ to Anand, four preferred a tie-break (one in two games, two
in four games, one by sudden death).
No winner ...
At this point, we considered declaring everyone had lost. Predicting the
correct score was the main skill of the competition. Nobody had managed
it. Frankly, nobody had even got close. After an extended discussion, we
decided to try to find a winner from the 10 remaining participants by
seeing who had got closest on the other predictions.
The second prediction was the number of decisive games. Three of you had
got this correct - three decisive games. (Though, evidently, you hadn't
expected all three to go the same way!) We next strip the seven of you
who hadn't selected three victories (five of you predicted one victory,
one of you predicted four (how would that work?) and the seventh didn't
make a prediction at all).
Finding a winner ...
So now we are down to three remaining participants in the prediction
competition, and down to the final tie-breakers - your guesses for the
players' first moves.
All three of you guessed Shirov would open with e4
in his first game as white; game one proved you correct. However, there
was a difference of opinion about the first move in game two, where
Anand played his first white. Two of you thought Anand would open with
d4, while the third thought there would be another e4. Game two started
1. e4 so we have a single winner!
Winner of the seventh round prediction competition is Alexander Davies.
Alexander was a joint competition winner in round four and round
five, but this time he wins alone to make sure of the book prize.
Congratulations, Alexander!
And the winner is ...?
On another matter, this closes another long-running mystery. At the
start of the championship, we asked you to predict the champion; of the
43 votes, a huge sixteen selected Viswanathan Anand.
Lastly, we offered a grand prize of entry to chess events at MSO 5 to
the overall winner of the contest - our grand champion in the prediction
competition. Unexpectedly, with three rounds won apiece, there are two
co-champions, Alexander Davies and Alfred Wallace! The two tied for
victory in round four and round five, Alfred tied for victory in round
six while Alexander won round seven. (Results table)
There's only one grand championship
prize available, though, so we will stage a grand final between the two
outstanding predictors to determine who wins. At the same time, we will resolve the massive tie for the final book prize for predicting the final winner of the event.
The Final Final will take place during our live chat coverage of Round 12 of the Corus super-tournament in Wijk an Zee on Saturday 27th January at 1230 GMT. Be sure to drop by for the usual commentary and mischief, as well as the ultimate quiz showdown!
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