Round Five
Webmaster Chris Dickson again delves into the statistical depths:
Only four matches, so we turned the difficulty of the contest up to the
next level by asking you to predict not just the winners but the scores
as well.
We're glad we did; there were twenty-seven voters, and if we had asked only for the winners then there would have been an eight-way tie for victory!
Everybody managed to predict at least one winner; the mean number of correct victory predictions was 2.70, most people getting either two or three right.
However, predicting the correct score as well proved to be particularly
challenging. The high number of ties so far in the championship was
reflected by a majority of tie-breaker predictions. Some people even
picked all four matches to reach the third day!
However, two people stood out with fantastic scores of 3/4 - Alfred Wallace and Alexander Davies. Both are on a roll, having made the final six in the last quiz, so will not mind facing each other in another quiz to determine the result of this quiz.
Mean score was 1.37/4, but that's 1.37 correct winners and scores; modal score was 2/4, but median score only 1/4 (there were 5 zeroes, 9 ones, 11 twos and 2 threes).
| Prediction summary |
| Match |
2-0 win |
1½-½ win |
TB win |
TB loss |
½-1½ loss
|
| ANAND over Khalifman |
0 |
11 |
10 |
6 |
0 |
| ADAMS over Topalov |
1 |
5 |
17 |
2 |
2 |
| GRISCHUK over Tkachiev |
0 |
4 |
9 |
9 |
5 |
| SHIROV over Bareev |
0 |
10 |
13 |
4 |
0 |
|
|
